Publications

Across the country, public school buildings are in disrepair. A 2020 Government Accountability Office report found that about half of all schools have serious infrastructural problems, including damaged floors, walls, and ceilings, malfunctioning electric systems, gas leaks, mold, pests, water contamination, and heating and air conditioning failures. Research shows that poor building conditions pose a threat to both student learning and health. Conversely, improving school facilities can significantly enhance student outcomes. Recent research finds that closing infrastructure spending gaps between high- and low-income districts could reduce achievement gaps by as much as 25 percent. Yet, most states underinvest in their facilities, placing the onus on local school districts to finance new construction and repair. This study offers a simple, scalable data model for analyzing and addressing infrastructure gaps. Using a small set of widely available data—school building age, square footage, local fiscal capacity, and state funding—it demonstrates how policymakers can:

1. estimate district-level facility investment needs;
2. identify gaps between infrastructure needs and available funding; and
3. design state funding approaches that better align local capacity, state support, and facility repair and modernization needs.

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This paper is a partial reanalysis of the data used by Jason Ward and Shane Phillips in a report released in April 2025 by the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies titled “Taxing Tomorrow: Measure ULA’s Impact on Multifamily Housing Production and Potential Reforms.” Using data and statistical code provided by Ward and Phillips, we reexamine their claim to have shown a “robust causal linkage” between Measure ULA and a reduction in multifamily housing construction. We find that the building permit data used by Ward and Phillips do not show any meaningful change in the number of multifamily housing units permitted on land sold after Measure ULA took effect.  In fact, there was a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, increase in the number of multifamily units permitted per month for projects with 10 or more units on land sold after Measure ULA took effect.

This discrepancy stems from differences in the outcome variable analyzed. We find that Ward and Phillips did not directly analyze the change in the number of multifamily units permitted. Rather, they tested whether the average size of multifamily projects had changed after Measure ULA took effect. Their findings leap from an analysis of the typical size of a project to a conclusion about the annual rate of housing construction, essentially assuming that the number of projects permitted each month did not change, when in fact it did. Moreover, we find that the observed change in average project size is better explained by broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in the federal funds rate, than Measure ULA taking effect. Ward and Phillips’ claim of a “robust causal linkage” between Measure ULA and declines in multifamily housing production is not reflected in the data they used.

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Since it passed with strong voter support in November 2022 and went into effect in April 2023, Measure ULA has helped tens of thousands of Angelenos through rental assistance, development of new affordable housing, creation of new construction jobs, education on tenants’ rights, and innovative new programs to make housing in LA fair for all. Despite these successes, in April 2025, the UCLA Lewis Center released a report—Taxing Tomorrow: Measure ULA’s Impact on Multifamily Housing Production and Potential Reforms by Jason Ward and Shane Phillips—claiming that the Measure ULA tax is hurting the Los Angeles real estate market. This paper finds that Taxing Tomorrow relies on questionable methodology, limited data, and flawed analysis to draw broad, premature conclusions and call for changes to Measure ULA with unaddressed fiscal impacts. The authors identify a number of flaws in Ward and Phillips’ methodology, data, controls, and assumptions, which combine to raise significant questions about the conclusions of the report.

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In November 2022, 58% of Los Angeles City voters approved Measure ULA to increase the City’s existing real estate transfer tax on property sales over $5 million. The law went into effect on April 1, 2023. In its first year, Measure ULA is on track to raise hundreds of millions of dollars and spend the funds to build more affordable housing, provide emergency rental assistance, protect tenants from eviction, and prevent homelessness. This is all despite efforts by the real estate industry to undermine the new law and a significant shortage of Los Angeles Housing Department (LAHD) staff to carry out the unprecedented program. Measure ULA has nevertheless proven itself effective in improving housing conditions in Los Angeles, and the city has now joined 16 other cities and counties across the nation that have enacted progressive taxes on high-price real estate sales (i.e. “mansion taxes”).

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